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A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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You can use the forex-charts tool to view information on major and minor currency pairs, as well as a range of commodity markets and global stock indices. Simply type in the asset of your choice and expand the chart to take advantage of a full suite of interactive features – including moving averages, Bollinger Bands and other technical indicators.

Bulls in full control right now with uptrends on the weekly, daily, 4H and hourly charts. When we lose the hourly uptrend, we look for a 4H higher low, When we lose the 4H uptrend we look for a daily higher low. I personally will hold my swing positions as long as we are in a daily uptrend. The odds of a bull break over $13.8k vs. a weekly lower high continue...
Successful trade talks could rescue a lot and give the positive cycle another year or two. A Brexit deal would add to the momentum. Failure of trade talks will I think precipitate a recession. A no deal Brexit would probably push the EU and UK into recession but not the rest of the world, if the trade talks are solved. If we get a no-deal Brexit and failed trade....it will be, as the Chinese supposedly said but never did... May you live in interesting times.

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