The Italian industrial production data for the month of May was released today. On a sequential basis, industrial production grew 0.9 percent. The percentage change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was 0.1. On a yearon-year basis, the adjusted industrial production index dropped 0.7 percent. The unadjusted industrial production index dropped 0.7 percent year-on-year. For details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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Successful trade talks could rescue a lot and give the positive cycle another year or two. A Brexit deal would add to the momentum. Failure of trade talks will I think precipitate a recession. A no deal Brexit would probably push the EU and UK into recession but not the rest of the world, if the trade talks are solved. If we get a no-deal Brexit and failed trade....it will be, as the Chinese supposedly said but never did... May you live in interesting times.
The 109.02-146 is overhead resistance The USDJPY has waffled up and down today as the "market" digests overhead resistance at the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April 24 high at 108.918 and swing resistance at 109.022 to 109.146. That area was home to swing lows going back to May. It was broken on May 31 and has not seen the levels since (see yellow area and red numbered circles).
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