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Successful trade talks could rescue a lot and give the positive cycle another year or two. A Brexit deal would add to the momentum. Failure of trade talks will I think precipitate a recession. A no deal Brexit would probably push the EU and UK into recession but not the rest of the world, if the trade talks are solved. If we get a no-deal Brexit and failed trade....it will be, as the Chinese supposedly said but never did... May you live in interesting times.
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Little happened across the FX board these last few days, with a US holiday in the middle and a scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbating the lack of action. Such picture changed Friday with the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report. Ahead of it, the market was convinced that the global economic slowdown would mean easy money coming. Stocks soared, with Wall Street flirting with record highs, while safe-haven assets benefited from those fears, and government bond yields fell to multi-year lows.
A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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