Note: Welcome back for some more chart analysis practice. As you know, I am not taking this trade in real life, and I have not back-tested this particular strategy on the USDCAD, so I really don't know how this type of trading strategy will work on this currency pair. That being said, never trade anything you haven't back-tested on your own. Don't trade a strategy... 

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A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:

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108.47 -52 is swing and 100 hour MA support target The price has moved to high from July 1 at the 108.52 area and the rising 100 hour MA at 108.474.  THe low just reached 108.518 so far.   A break below both levels will look to target the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 108.322 and then the 200 hour MA at 108.236. A trend line cuts across at 108.195.  

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