So I was thinking for a long time about this current move of BTC. WTF is BTC doing here, it should still "rest" in 2019 and start the bigger upmoves in early 2020, a few months before the halving. Instead, we are already now apparently pushing for higher highs, and are not too far away from ATH any more. And BTC? Still no sign of a larger correction. I hoped...
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Successful trade talks could rescue a lot and give the positive cycle another year or two. A Brexit deal would add to the momentum. Failure of trade talks will I think precipitate a recession. A no deal Brexit would probably push the EU and UK into recession but not the rest of the world, if the trade talks are solved. If we get a no-deal Brexit and failed trade....it will be, as the Chinese supposedly said but never did... May you live in interesting times.
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A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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