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Hello all - DuncanForex with another trade idea. With NFP coming in strong on Friday and USD gaining strength - the question is: Is this short term sentiment and will the FED support further USD strength or will the FED still suggest a rate cut and in turn will USD weaken,? Therefore, the recent price action being a stop loss hunt before heading higher quite...
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GBP/USD: Retail trader data shows 82.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.81 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBP/USD traded near 1.29115; price has moved 3.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.7% higher than yesterday and 25.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.7% higher than yesterday and 17.1% lower from last week.
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Note: Welcome back for some more chart analysis practice. As you know, I am not taking this trade in real life, and I have not back-tested this particular strategy on the USDCAD, so I really don't know how this type of trading strategy will work on this currency pair. That being said, never trade anything you haven't back-tested on your own. Don't trade a strategy...
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A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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Little happened across the FX board these last few days, with a US holiday in the middle and a scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbating the lack of action. Such picture changed Friday with the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report. Ahead of it, the market was convinced that the global economic slowdown would mean easy money coming. Stocks soared, with Wall Street flirting with record highs, while safe-haven assets benefited from those fears, and government bond yields fell to multi-year lows.
Traders stalling but not coming off much The GBPUSD is up testing is 100 hour moving average of 1.25154. The high just reached 1.25203 on the spike higher after the release of Fed Chair Powell's prepared text. The price currently trades at 1.2516. The pair move below its 100 hour moving average on July 1 at 1.2694 and trended to low at 1.24389 yesterday and a slightly higher 1.2443 today.
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EURUSD is beeig longtime in downtrend. At least last highs are overwritten (highest highs) and EURUSD is showing strength (only technically, fundamentally it is weak) changing its downtrend to uptrend! So most adekvate entry point is then it will overwrite low point (support + weak divergence). This is good entry point because StopLoss is short and potential...
Shortened as “Vol.” in the economic calendar and depicted as yellow/orange/red bars, the volatility is an indicator of the expected impact of a data on currencies. Shall a bar be red and long, market observers expect this data to have great probability to move the Forex market. Shall this bar be yellow and short, the probability is viewed as low. In orange, we’re just in between.