GBP/USD rises to a high of 1.2483 on the day ForexLive Buyers are beginning to work their forward a little bit on the session as the pound is creeping slightly higher amid the release of the May monthly GDP data earlier and higher UK gilt yields. Of note, 10-year gilt yields are up by 6 bps on the session to 0.78% - their highest level in a week amid a bit of a beat down in European bonds.
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Successful trade talks could rescue a lot and give the positive cycle another year or two. A Brexit deal would add to the momentum. Failure of trade talks will I think precipitate a recession. A no deal Brexit would probably push the EU and UK into recession but not the rest of the world, if the trade talks are solved. If we get a no-deal Brexit and failed trade....it will be, as the Chinese supposedly said but never did... May you live in interesting times.
US 500: Retail trader data shows 26.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.8 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Jan 07 when US 500 traded near 2636.3; price has moved 13.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.7% higher than yesterday and 9.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.5% higher than yesterday and 8.1% higher from last week.
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USD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 62.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 03 when USD/JPY traded near 112.096; price has moved 2.9% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.3% lower than yesterday and 4.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.3% higher than yesterday and 25.3% higher from last week.
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A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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Successful trade talks could rescue a lot and give the positive cycle another year or two. A Brexit deal would add to the momentum. Failure of trade talks will I think precipitate a recession. A no deal Brexit would probably push the EU and UK into recession but not the rest of the world, if the trade talks are solved. If we get a no-deal Brexit and failed trade....it will be, as the Chinese supposedly said but never did... May you live in interesting times.
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