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Traders stalling but not coming off much The GBPUSD is up testing is 100 hour moving average of 1.25154. The high just reached 1.25203 on the spike higher after the release of Fed Chair Powell's prepared text. The price currently trades at 1.2516. The pair move below its 100 hour moving average on July 1 at 1.2694 and trended to low at 1.24389 yesterday and a slightly higher 1.2443 today.
So I was thinking for a long time about this current move of BTC. WTF is BTC doing here, it should still "rest" in 2019 and start the bigger upmoves in early 2020, a few months before the halving. Instead, we are already now apparently pushing for higher highs, and are not too far away from ATH any more. And BTC? Still no sign of a larger correction. I hoped...
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A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
Little happened across the FX board these last few days, with a US holiday in the middle and a scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbating the lack of action. Such picture changed Friday with the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report. Ahead of it, the market was convinced that the global economic slowdown would mean easy money coming. Stocks soared, with Wall Street flirting with record highs, while safe-haven assets benefited from those fears, and government bond yields fell to multi-year lows.
100 hour MA at 1.1232 is now support. Price approaches 100 day moving average The EURUSD has moved above the 100 hour MA on the back of the Fed chairs prepared remarks to Congress. That moving average comes in at 1.1232. The pair is now testing the key 100 day MA at 1.12546. The 50% midpoint from the high correction on July 2 is also at that level.
One strategy that is a simple forex trading system is following the daily or weekly trend. Review the daily and weekly charts and find a trend that seems well supported and get in. The one caveat about this particular type of trading is that your moves that look small on the chart can span 100's of pips. This means that you need to trade small. Use a conservative allocation when you buy in and allow your trade to develop a bit. Set a reasonable stop and plan out a target. Beginners find this strategy easy because they don't need to watch the market constantly, they can trade when they have time.
Note: Welcome back for some more chart analysis practice. As you know, I am not taking this trade in real life, and I have not back-tested this particular strategy on the USDCAD, so I really don't know how this type of trading strategy will work on this currency pair. That being said, never trade anything you haven't back-tested on your own. Don't trade a strategy...
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