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Little happened across the FX board these last few days, with a US holiday in the middle and a scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbating the lack of action. Such picture changed Friday with the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report. Ahead of it, the market was convinced that the global economic slowdown would mean easy money coming. Stocks soared, with Wall Street flirting with record highs, while safe-haven assets benefited from those fears, and government bond yields fell to multi-year lows.
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Successful trade talks could rescue a lot and give the positive cycle another year or two. A Brexit deal would add to the momentum. Failure of trade talks will I think precipitate a recession. A no deal Brexit would probably push the EU and UK into recession but not the rest of the world, if the trade talks are solved. If we get a no-deal Brexit and failed trade....it will be, as the Chinese supposedly said but never did... May you live in interesting times.
A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:

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Traders stalling but not coming off much The GBPUSD is up testing is 100 hour moving average of 1.25154. The high just reached 1.25203 on the spike higher after the release of Fed Chair Powell's prepared text.   The price currently trades at 1.2516.  The pair move below its 100 hour moving average on July 1 at 1.2694 and trended to low at 1.24389 yesterday and a slightly higher 1.2443 today.
GBP/USD rises to a high of 1.2483 on the day ForexLive Buyers are beginning to work their forward a little bit on the session as the pound is creeping slightly higher amid the release of the May monthly GDP data earlier and higher UK gilt yields. Of note, 10-year gilt yields are up by 6 bps on the session to 0.78% - their highest level in a week amid a bit of a beat down in European bonds.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

You have plenty of options to draw on your graph, from lines (including trend channels) to arrows, going through rectangles, circles and much more. You can also write any text you want to add your particular notes and comments. Another available option to benefit from is the one that allows to configure the color of each of the drawing you put on the board, as well as the line weight (thin, regular or bold). How to draw on your diagram


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