Little happened across the FX board these last few days, with a US holiday in the middle and a scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbating the lack of action. Such picture changed Friday with the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report. Ahead of it, the market was convinced that the global economic slowdown would mean easy money coming. Stocks soared, with Wall Street flirting with record highs, while safe-haven assets benefited from those fears, and government bond yields fell to multi-year lows.
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Currencies are traded on the Foreign Exchange market, also known as Forex. This is a decentralized market that spans the globe and is considered the largest by trading volume and the most liquid worldwide. Exchange rates fluctuate continuously due to the ever changing market forces of supply and demand. Forex traders buy a currency pair if they think the exchange rate will rise and sell it if they think the opposite will happen. The Forex market remains open around the world for 24 hours a day with the exception of weekends.
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Note: Welcome back for some more chart analysis practice. As you know, I am not taking this trade in real life, and I have not back-tested this particular strategy on the USDCAD, so I really don't know how this type of trading strategy will work on this currency pair. That being said, never trade anything you haven't back-tested on your own. Don't trade a strategy...
While Forex trading can feel complicated, it's something that anyone with patience and the ability to learn from their mistakes can gain some skill at over time. It takes some persistence. The system is designed in a way that frustrates most people. You need to step back, keep an eye on the big picture, and trade small, at least in the beginning. It's also smart to avoid those "100 percent accurate forex trading systems" on the internet until you have some experience under your belt.
A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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Bulls in full control right now with uptrends on the weekly, daily, 4H and hourly charts. When we lose the hourly uptrend, we look for a 4H higher low, When we lose the 4H uptrend we look for a daily higher low. I personally will hold my swing positions as long as we are in a daily uptrend. The odds of a bull break over $13.8k vs. a weekly lower high continue...
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