CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
A topside surprise for this should be AUD supportive. The housing sector (construction and related) of the economy has felt a negative impact from the fall in home prices. If confidence returns to the sector it'll be a positive for the economy. I suspect a downside surprise will not impact as much as recent indicators (after May) have given small glimmers of recovery:
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US 500: Retail trader data shows 26.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.8 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Jan 07 when US 500 traded near 2636.3; price has moved 13.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.7% higher than yesterday and 9.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.5% higher than yesterday and 8.1% higher from last week.
The downside to the carry trade is that typically the interest differentials are not that much compared to how much risk you are taking. Also, currency pairs that are good for carry trading typically have a strong reaction to any news that presents a risk to the global markets. In other words, as long as things are good, these pairs will rise and pay. If something goes wrong, sometimes unexpectedly, they will plunge very hard and very fast. If you are overleveraged, you can blow up your account in a blink.
Legally required risk warning - Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.